December 16th, 2024

Hi All,

Well a brief but maybe pertinent last blog of 2024 as I look forward towards next week's weather and calorific Armageddon as I describe Christmas. That said, I have to admit the prospect of cooking Flæsketeg, Brunkartofler and Rødkål on Christmas Eve fills me with happy thoughts. Even the prospect of multi-laminating the dough for proper Danish pastry without the butter leaking out of the side and necessitating a full-on pastry strop doesn't faze me currently. (Note - It has flown across the kitchen before !) It's all part of Christmas and hey after how 2024 has panned out, don't we need a bit of a light relief ?

With El Niño in charge at the beginning of this year, I had it in my mind we would see a record heat summer but how wrong was I ?

Instead we got a pretty wet and humid one which then carried on into September and gave us our highest disease pressure month before normally we see any disease pressure.....go figure ?

Here in Market Harborough, September was also our wettest month of the year and I think we will end up with a total rainfall figure around 1150mm for the year when usually we are around 650-750mm. Unheard of flooding and a very high water table makes all these forecasts of water as a vanishing resource seem scaremongering at its worst. It isn't though, I mean if we are going to build 1.5 million more houses in 5 years, without the reciprocal investment in infrastructure (you know hospitals, medical clinics, schools, social care, the kind of thing we haven't got enough of currently), that water has got to come from somewhere hasn't it ? And with no new reservoirs built for 30 years in the south of England as an example (though of course there is the new Havant Thicket reservoir near Portsmouth under construction I believe), where is that water going to come from ? I also happen to know that on some of the local reservoirs that I frequent, the water companies plan to raise their level by 1-2 metres to store more water to meet future demand no doubt.

So as Redwings and Fieldfares begin to fill up our hedgerows (2 months later than normal due to climate change across Scandinavia), is there a sign of some of the white stuff ahead or are William Hill going to keep my White Christmas bets ? (sadly I think they will)

General Weather Situation - 16-12-24

Last week I suggested that this week was going to be a tricky one to get out a pre-Christmas spray because of either rainfall and more likely wind speed and that seems to be correct as we are in for a mild (ish), windy and sometimes wet one this week as we pick up a strong jet stream run. That wind is going to be mighty changeable this week starting off fresh and strong from the south west for the 1st part of the week and providing us some rain but also some mild temperatures peaking on Wednesday in the low teens for the south of England before it turns tale and swings round to the north west on Thursday and drops 5°C off the maximum temperature dropping us to 7-8°C. Then at the end of the week, we go back to south westerly and temperatures increase again. That brief cold spell on Thursday might just bring some wintry showers into the weather picture for Scotland and maybe for northern Denmark, but I think you'll more likely pick up rain as your winds swing round to south westerly for the weekend.

That strong wind picture carries on all week and into the weekend so my forecast for a not-so-great pre-Christmas spray week appears to have been correct (ish). OK, it is a little bit milder than it looked last week but I don't think that it will make much odds if you sprayed last week, more likely it will give better uptake for a foliar application.

Weather Outlook - 23-12-24

Now of course the key question is how is Christmas week looking weather-wise ?

Well if you look at the animated GIF courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com and have attended any of my recent talks (and stayed awake :) ), you'll recognise the weather pattern as an Omega Blocking Event with high pressure building under the peak pattern in the jet stream.

The above is the projected weather for Christmas Day using the U.S Global Forecasting System. The European forecasting system (ECMWF) is showing something very similar. Note the warm air plume (I say note, crumbs you can't exactly miss it can you ?) and its source across Spain and Northern Africa, so in my mind that means mild, humid air probably into double figures, with those temperatures maintained overnight.

There looks to be some wind around as well (appropriate for Christmas Dinner eh after all that Red Cabbage !!) initially on Christmas Day but those isobars stretch out thereafter meaning wind levels will drop from the 26th December I think.

So I think as it stands now we are looking at a mild, humid Christmas period particularly from the 25th Dec through to the 30th Dec. It will be mainly dry, some rain around across Ireland, the north west and Scotland on Christmas Eve but mainly dry aside from that until we get towards the end of Christmas week when we see more showers across Scotland and the north of Ireland. As a note to my Danish brethren, Christmas Day looks potentially cool and windy with rain crossing the country before things quieten down and that high pressure begins to influence proceedings through to the end of Christmas week when it may turn unsettled again.

Agronomic Notes

I guess my biggest concern from this forecast is the potential for Microdochium activity through Christmas week as we pull up mild / humid air from southern Europe, with the warmest air across the southern half of England and Wales. Ireland and Denmark will still be mild (double figure temperatures I think) with Scotland a little cooler and cooling down quicker after Christmas.

Initially, it'll probably be too windy for dew formation so we could go in with a dry leaf but it's the threat of decreasing winds, increasing humidity and dew formation dove-tailed in with mild day and night time temperatures. It will be interesting to see if it pans out as I have described but that weather pattern shown in the image above is the blueprint for disease and has been throughout 2024, whether that's September's Dollar Spot and Microdochium peak in activity or this one here that we looking at.

High pressure originating in Southern Europe is public enemy numero uno !

Now if we do see the disease pressure I think we might, we are more likely to see re-activity around the edges of existing scars (as seen above) because that is where the fungal population is highest, rather than new infection sites across the grass sward. Bearing that in mind, that's where you need to keep an eye out across your surfaces.

As this is my last blog of 2024, I would like to thank everyone that follows my blogs on the web or LinkedIn and for their feedback whenever I meet up with greenkeeper and groundsman across Europe. Thank you.

All that remains is to wish you a Merry Christmas and hopefully a relaxing one.

All the best for the coming year.

Mark Hunt